Monday, August 21, 2006

Phoenix housing bubble deflation update

Phoenix's inventory of homes for sale continues to rise (continuing from where we left off on June 16). My first report, in October 2005, showed an inventory of 10,748 homes on July 20, 2005, rising to 19,254 on October 2. (Data comes from ziprealty.com, via posts to Ben Jones' Housing Bubble Blog.)

6/17/2006 49402
6/18/2006 49546
6/19/2006 49504
6/20/2006 49432
6/21/2006 49453
6/22/2006 49867
6/23/2006 50296
6/24/2006 50599
6/25/2006 50526
6/26/2006 50413
6/27/2006 50295
6/28/2006 50395
6/29/2006 50878
6/30/2006 50347
7/1/2006 50492
7/2/2006 50404
7/3/2006 50264
7/4/2006 50511
7/5/2006 50284
7/6/2006 50227
7/7/2006 50667
7/8/2006 50944
7/9/2006 50638
7/10/2006 50167
7/11/2006 51396
7/12/2006 51124
7/13/2006 50995
7/14/2006 51302
7/15/2006 51478
7/16/2006 51642
7/17/2006 51698
7/18/2006 51704
7/19/2006 51682
7/20/2006 51557
7/21/2006 51758
7/22/2006 52110
7/23/2006 52363
7/24/2006 52137
7/25/2006 52019
7/26/2006 52540
7/27/2006 52228
7/28/2006 52595
7/29/2006 52413
7/30/2006 52482
7/31/2006 52535
8/1/2006 52230
8/2/2006 52396
8/3/2006 52337
8/4/2006 52600
8/5/2006 52802
8/6/2006 52845
8/7/2006 52953
8/8/2006 52560
8/9/2006 52513
8/10/2006 52681
8/11/2006 52417
8/12/2006 52895
8/13/2006 53126
8/14/2006 52757
8/15/2006 52793
8/16/2006 52693
8/17/2006 53102
8/18/2006 52855
8/19/2006 53014
8/20/2006 53350

10,748 on July 20, 2005 to 53,350 on August 20, 2006--that's a 496% increase in inventory in 13 months.

Einzige--how about an update on trustee sales?

2 comments:

Einzige said...

At last check, Maricopa County Notices of Trustee's Sales were averaging more than 40 per (business) day for August. That puts us on target for over 950 for the month, which is over 100 more than July. The last time the number was higher was in March of 2005.

I think the real interesting numbers are still a few months away. We've still got a ways to go before the numbers start matching those of the tech bubble. I'll post an update to my graph in November, I think.

Einzige said...

August's total overshot my estimate by 81!

There were a total of 1031 Notices of Trustee Sale.

Let's put that number in perspective. Looking at the last 140 months, the mean number of N/TRs is 900, and the standard deviation for that data set is 286.

So, 1031, while it's nearly 200 higher than July's number, is still fairly representative, and is well off January 2003's high of 1738.

Of course the past 140 months may be somewhat atypical, given that they contain the tech bubble numbers, which certainly have skewed the data upwards.

If September's number is higher than 1100 then I'll post an updated graph.