Phoenix housing inventories for sale continue to climb
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Posts
2 comments:
Umm. Holy crap.
Jim... do you have the number of total homes there are in the valley?
I'll have to see if I can find that. The number of new homes started between January and June 2005 (based on number of permits issued) was 33,200, and that number and the ones in the posting are just for Phoenix proper. There were 28,731 new home building permits issued between January and June 2004.
So the home inventory is a tiny percentage of the total number of homes available, but what's of interest for prices is how strong the demand is, and how many months of inventory are available at the current rate that sales are occurring. I think home sales peaked in Phoenix in August 2005, for which I can't find a number. There were 8,420 sales in October 2005 and 7,195 in November 2005 (vs. 9,525 in November 2004, which was oddly high), down to 6,480 in December 2005. The number of houses sold in 2005 was 110,835 (resales only), compared to 102,115 in 2004.
Using December's sales number, there is five months of inventory for sale. I expect we'll see further decline in monthly sales numbers and increase in inventory. I thought I saw the ASU Real Estate Center was predicting a 10% increase in prices in 2006--I think they're high (pun intended). I like this quote from ASU's Jay Butler, from an Arizona Republic page (Jan. 14, 2006) that is now only in Google cache: "Butler said homeowners shouldn't worry about home prices leveling off because it will help keep the housing market going if more people can afford homes."
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