Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Phoenix housing inventories for sale continue to climb

To continue from just before where we left off last time... there were 10,748 homes for sale on July 20, 2005, and it had increased by 79% to 19,254 by October 2. Yesterday, it was up a further 69% to 32,512--a 202% increase over the July 20 number. I've seen estimates that about a third are being sold by "investors."

10/1/2005 19333
10/2/2005 19316
10/3/2005 19362
10/4/2005 19463
10/5/2005 19562
10/6/2005 19670
10/7/2005 20052
10/8/2005 20219
10/9/2005 20153
10/10/2005 20324
10/11/2005 20470
10/12/2005 20668
10/13/2005 20850
10/14/2005 21238
10/15/2005 21446
10/16/2005 21463
10/17/2005 21527
10/18/2005 21588
10/19/2005 21795
10/20/2005 21806
10/21/2005 22302
10/22/2005 22719
10/23/2005 22769
10/24/2005 22806
10/25/2005 22976
10/26/2005 23132
10/27/2005 23293
10/28/2005 23681
10/29/2005 23805
10/30/2005 23816
10/31/2005 23790
11/1/2005 23601
11/2/2005 23665
11/3/2005 24193
11/4/2005 24579
11/5/2005 24786
11/6/2005 24717
11/7/2005 24937
11/8/2005 25244
11/9/2005 25333
11/10/2005 25387
11/11/2005 25700
11/12/2005 25685
11/13/2005 25773
11/14/2005 25945
11/15/2005 25913
11/16/2005 25884
11/17/2005 26261
11/18/2005 26098
11/19/2005 26662
11/20/2005 26688
11/21/2005 26684
11/22/2005 26488
11/23/2005 26776
11/24/2005 26819
11/25/2005 26855
11/26/2005 26871
11/27/2005 26890
11/28/2005 26979
11/29/2005 26811
11/30/2005 26797
12/1/2005 26792
12/2/2005 26915
12/3/2005 27238
12/4/2005 27295
12/5/2005 27356
12/6/2005 27387
12/7/2005 27403
12/8/2005 27367
12/9/2005 27649
12/10/2005 27706
12/11/2005 27664
12/12/2005 27512
12/13/2005 27411
12/14/2005 27566
12/15/2005 27517
12/16/2005 27603
12/17/2005 27791
12/18/2005 27776
12/19/2005 27722
12/20/2005 27604
12/21/2005 27554
12/22/2005 27516
12/23/2005 27486
12/24/2005 27311
12/25/2005 27014
12/26/2005 26810
12/27/2005 26822
12/28/2005 26687
12/29/2005 26649
12/30/2005 26547
12/31/2005 26497
1/1/2006 26462
1/2/2006 26401
1/3/2006 26751
1/4/2006 27403
1/5/2006 27564
1/6/2006 28224
1/7/2006 28337
1/8/2006 28542
1/9/2006 28595
1/10/2006 28786
1/11/2006 29222
1/12/2006 29507
1/13/2006 29689
1/14/2006 29899
1/15/2006 30415
1/16/2006 30391
1/17/2006 30707
1/18/2006 30817
1/19/2006 31085
1/20/2006 31457
1/21/2006 31463
1/22/2006 31497
1/23/2006 31607
1/24/2006 31766
1/25/2006 31830
1/26/2006 32142
1/27/2006 32002
1/28/2006 32477
1/29/2006 32458
1/30/2006 32512

2 comments:

cowmix said...

Umm. Holy crap.

Jim... do you have the number of total homes there are in the valley?

Jim Lippard said...

I'll have to see if I can find that. The number of new homes started between January and June 2005 (based on number of permits issued) was 33,200, and that number and the ones in the posting are just for Phoenix proper. There were 28,731 new home building permits issued between January and June 2004.

So the home inventory is a tiny percentage of the total number of homes available, but what's of interest for prices is how strong the demand is, and how many months of inventory are available at the current rate that sales are occurring. I think home sales peaked in Phoenix in August 2005, for which I can't find a number. There were 8,420 sales in October 2005 and 7,195 in November 2005 (vs. 9,525 in November 2004, which was oddly high), down to 6,480 in December 2005. The number of houses sold in 2005 was 110,835 (resales only), compared to 102,115 in 2004.

Using December's sales number, there is five months of inventory for sale. I expect we'll see further decline in monthly sales numbers and increase in inventory. I thought I saw the ASU Real Estate Center was predicting a 10% increase in prices in 2006--I think they're high (pun intended). I like this quote from ASU's Jay Butler, from an Arizona Republic page (Jan. 14, 2006) that is now only in Google cache: "Butler said homeowners shouldn't worry about home prices leveling off because it will help keep the housing market going if more people can afford homes."