Phoenix Trustee's Sale Notices for May, 2008

After I counted up May's 6416 notices of trustee's sales in Maricopa county I took a look at the graph for May of 2007 and I just had to laugh. If you'll recall, May of 2007 was Phoenix's break-out month for pre-foreclosures. It was the month when the real estate bubble showed us that it wasn't an also-ran, trouncing the dot bomb's NTR record by almost 300. Yet here we are a year later and last May's 2009 notices seem almost like something to pine for.

Notice also the Gaussian descriptive statistics I was naïvely including with my posts back then. If we were to take those number seriously - in particular the standard deviation - then we'd be forced to conclude that May 2008's number should essentially be impossible. Clearly foreclosure statistics are not Gaussian.

Liberaltarianism

Will Wilkinson has an interesting post about how his market liberal views are very like the views of Hayek, Friedman, and Buchanan, and that the libertarian-conservative alliance against a slippery slope to socialism isn't justified by what's actually occurring in the world today.

In a subsequent post, he writes about how economic regulation and tax/transfer policies are logically separable, but most people think about them as if they aren't; a comparison of levels of inequality and poverty across the EU shows that the common thought that less regulation and taxation goes hand-in-hand with higher levels of poverty and inequality (of the sort seen in the U.S. and UK) doesn't hold. Thus you could have a regime with very low levels of regulation yielding more wealth, combined with more redistribution for a better safety net and less poverty and inequality.

And in another post, he calls for greater empirical grounding for proposals in political philosophy, of the sort that has started to yield fruitful results in moral philosophy:

But shouldn’t it impossible to take seriously an argument to the effect that, say this or that policy is required in order to secure the conditions for the development of some capacity, in the absence of (a) a well-empirically-grounded theory of the nature of that capacity and its development, and (b) some kind of actual evidence that this or that policy in fact has the kind of effect on it that one hypothesizes? I wouldn’t mind so much if political philosophy arguments were more often in the form of “Hey, here’s a conjecture! I suggest somebody competent to do so try to find out if it’s true.” I would be quite happy if I saw more “Hey, here’s a conjecture, and here’s a my attempt to honestly synthesize the relevant literature in a first pass at getting the answer.” That would be terrific. But usually, the argument aims to establish something substantive with an armchair, a Joe Stiglitz op-ed, and something remembered from the Tuesday Science Times.

Let's hear it for empiricism.

An update to the pledge of allegiance

Tom W. Bell proposes the following update to the pledge of allegiance:

I pledge allegiance to the laws of the United States of America, on condition that it respect my rights, natural, constitutional, and statutory, with liberty and justice for all.

That's a pledge I could make, despite my skepticism about the use of the term "natural rights." I do think there are moral rights entailed by the combination of certain common human values and empirical facts. (This conversation between Will Wilkinson and Shaun Nichols about Nichols' book, Sentimental Rules, suggests one way of getting to moral rules I find far more plausible than the natural rights/natural law tradition.)

Dan Barker's new book

Dan Barker has a new book coming out, Godless: How an Evangelical Preacher Became One of America's Leading Atheists. It's available for pre-order on Amazon.com. Also check out the organization run by Dan and Annie Laurie Gaylor, the Freedom From Religion Foundation.

Richard Cheese live on the radio

Richard Cheese will be performing live on the radio this afternoon on Phoenix's KEDJ, 103.9 FM, at around 4:45 p.m. Arizona time, during Tim Virgin's show. You can also listen via the Internet via a link at the radio station's website.

RESCUE Bowl-a-Rama

RESCUE's Bowl-a-Rama fundraising event is here again, and Kat and I will both be bowling for the "Leader of the Pack" team of volunteers who work with dogs. There's a competing "Rockin Bowlin Felines" team of volunteers who work with cats.

Our goal is to raise $3,000 between us for RESCUE, of which we've so far raised $220.

RESCUE is a group we've volunteered with since January 2002, which rescues dogs and cats from the euthanasia lists at the Maricopa County pound. It operates its own cat shelter, while dogs are kept in foster homes and boarded at Dog Days in Tempe, a boarding and doggie day care facility that has been a valued partner of RESCUE.

Two of our three dogs, Fred and Otto, were rescued from euthanasia by RESCUE.

Every donation helps save dogs and cats from unnecessary euthanasia--if you can give even $5, it will be greatly appreciated.

You can make donations through RESCUE's website, here. Specify "Leader of the Pack" as the team, and put Kat's or my name under "Encourage Your Bowler" or "Referrer."

The actual bowling will occur on August 2, 2008 at AMF Shea Village Lanes. In past years there have been more than 60 organizations participating, so the bowling gets divided into morning and evening shifts and the place gets packed.

Worthless stock market advice

On May 8, 2008, "An end to the economy's nose dive?", MSN MoneyCentral, Jon Markman suggests that the recession may be over or not a big deal for major company stocks:

"If Hyman is right, and StockScouter continues to highlight the right sectors and stocks to play, there is no reason for investors to fear the pressures facing big companies right now. It really may be time to go off high alert."

But just two months ago, Markman was saying that you should sell every stock you own and get out of the market, on March 13, 2008, in "Sell stocks while the selling's good":

"Yet veteran observers are swiftly coming to the conclusion that attempts to regain world financial stability could be doomed due to a stunning crash of commercial-debt financing and lack of trusted leadership, and they now believe private investors should take advantage of any rallies to purge their portfolios of most stocks and nongovernment bonds."

My advice: Don't take stock market advice from Jon Markman. The fact that he's a "technical analyst"--making predictions based on short-term patterns of stock movement using methodology that has no better support than astrology, tea-leaf reading, or palmistry--is further reason to avoid reading him for any reason other than humor value.

Heathrow security confuses the map for the territory

A man wearing a Transformers t-shirt was stopped by airport security at Heathrow Terminal 5 because the cartoon character on the shirt was depicted holding a gun.

This is about as idiotic as Michelle Malkin's opposition to Rachael Ray wearing a paisley scarf that resembled a keffiyah--even after she admitted it was a paisley scarf.

"Expelled" producers win round one on "Imagine" lawsuit

In a decision issued today, the judge in the case of Yoko Ono against Premise Media ruled against Ono's motion for an injunction against the film, on the grounds that Premise Media and its attorneys at the Stanford Fair Use Project were likely to prevail on a fair use defense. So "Expelled" will be able to be released in Canada with its excerpting of "Imagine" intact.

This is an outcome I suggested would occur, and hoped for, despite the dishonesty of the defendants in this case. It remains to be seen if Ono will continue with the lawsuit and potentially set a useful precedent for copyright law.

(Via Pharyngula.)

ApostAZ podcast #2

The second ApostAZ podcast is now available for listening at ApostAZ.org. Topics include the Virgin Mary visible on a biker's leg wound, Phoenix atheists meetup group organizer Shannon's deconversion story, an "Arizona Atheist Action" segment on the current proposal to create another anti-same-sex marriage amendment to the state constitution, and more.

Correction, guys--our sun is a Class G star, not a Class B star. (It doesn't negate your point--Class G stars are more common than Class B stars.)