Matt McIntosh on Iran

Matt McIntosh at Catallarchy has been making an interesting series of posts about Iran and the United States. In part 1, he points out that U.S. policy with respect to Iran has been completely irrational and counterproductive:

Consider: the United States military takes down two governments to the East and West of Iran, both of whom the Iranians had longstanding feuds with, leaving Iran the only regional power left standing. Rather than working with Iran from the get-go on both of these operations, which would have been the natural Machiavellian thing to do, the Bush administration chooses instead to antagonize them and continues to do so even now. The Iranians shrug and play right along, allowing al Qaeda members to stay in their “custody” and meddling in Iraq, since there’s nothing in it for them to do otherwise – and every reason for them to keep the US bogged down and busy, since Bush has already telegraphed a big fat “YOU’RE NEXT” message to them.

If you’re the Iranian Supreme Leader, what do you do in this situation? Pretty much what they’re doing now: jerk everyone around and eat the clock, all the while reaching for the Bomb as an anti-invasion insurance policy as fast as you can get it. All you have to do is get one functioning nuclear missile and you’re set, and the odds of anyone being both able and willing to stop you are slim. The Iranians are not stupid; they know full well that there’s currently no political will in the US for yet another war, and that starting one would be political death for the already beleaguered Republicans.

In Part 2, he sets out and argues for some basic assumptions about dealings with Iran:

1) Iran is not going to give up the quest for nukes voluntarily.

2) Democratic revolution is not going to happen.

3) Ahmadinejad does not matter unless people let him.

4) The Iranian regime is deterrable.

He further argues that, based on these assumptions, covert or overt U.S. support of dissident groups within Iran is likely to be counter-productive, causing those groups to be treated with more suspicion within Iran.

Now, in Part 3, he points out some things the people of Iran want and that we should find desirable for them to have--economic freedom at the top of the list. He suggests that we effectively offer a bribe--removal of sanctions and reopening of diplomatic relations in return for their cooperation in ending violence in Iraq; unfreezing billions of assets if they turn over al Qaeda leaders they supposedly have under arrest. Combined with this, he suggests that we let them continue with their nuclear program so long as they are transparent about it and understand that any nuclear explosion in a populated area will be blamed on untrustworthy nuclear nations (North Korea, Iran, Pakistan) and will result in nuclear retaliation.

I'm not particularly happy with that last suggestion--but McIntosh's suggestions seem more credible overall than current U.S. policy. On the nuclear issue, the current U.S. plan seems to be to try to get Iran to agree to stop its nuclear program completely and allow them to purchase non-military nuclear technology that is less likely to be usable for military applications, perhaps years in the future. Specifically, the U.S. is devoting resources (through the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership) to develop fast-burning reactors which can be used in developing countries, loaning them fuel and then taking spent fuel back for recycling and burning down, so that those countries have no need for enrichment or extraction technologies. If Iran could be persuaded to enter into such an arrangement, that would be far preferable to them having possession of military nuclear capability.

How to spot a baby conservative

A new study published in the Journal of Research Into Personality by a UC Berkeley professor, Jack Block, who followed 95 children for 20 years. Those who were whiny, paranoid, and complaining as children turned out to be conservatives. Those who were confident and self-reliant turned out to be liberals. This is supporting evidence for similar work by John T. Jost at Stanford, but Block's work is labeled as "biased, shoddy work" by Jeff Greenberg of the University of Arizona. (Link is to coverage in the Toronto Star.)

UPDATE: There are some good criticisms of the Block study by Jim Lindgren at the Volokh Conspiracy (here and here).

Dirty Politician: John Boehner

Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) was named Speaker of the House to replace Tom DeLay. It's already been pointed out that he lives in a D.C. apartment that belongs to a lobbyist. The Center for Public Integrity has looked further at his record, and found that he

• has taken dozens of trips on private jets owned by corporations that have legislative interests before Congress
• has accepted scores of privately sponsored trips (often categorized as having fact-finding or educational purposes) to some of the world's premier golf spots and foreign locales
• has hosted many high-end fund-raisers to wine and dine potential donors and Republican colleagues
• has donated millions of dollars to election campaigns of fellow Republicans.

All legal, but the first two items are equivalent to receiving substantial gifts from special interests, and the second two are equivalent to passing some of them on and seeking more.

The CPI's website also has a Google Map of Boehner's trips and expenses for 2005 which includes a Scottsdale, Arizona connection--he spent thousands of dollars at the Talking Stick Golf Club at 9998 E. Indian Bend Rd:

Date	Amount
02/13/2004	$3805.13
02/13/2004	$469.13
02/13/2004	$938.26
03/07/2005	$7488.67

Fox News: Isaac Hayes did not quit South Park

Roger Friedman at Fox News reports:

Isaac Hayes did not quit "South Park." My sources say that someone quit it for him.

I can tell you that Hayes is in no position to have quit anything. Contrary to news reports, the great writer, singer and musician suffered a stroke on Jan. 17. At the time it was said that he was hospitalized and suffering from exhaustion.

He goes on to quote Hayes defending the show--including the Scientology episode specifically--on The Onion's AV Club:

AV Club: They did just do an episode that made fun of your religion, Scientology. Did that bother you?

Hayes: Well, I talked to Matt [Stone] and Trey [Parker] about that. They didn't let me know until it was done. I said, 'Guys, you have it all wrong. We're not like that. I know that's your thing, but get your information correct, because somebody might believe that [expletive], you know?' But I understand what they're doing. I told them to take a couple of Scientology courses and understand what we do. [Laughs.]

If Friedman is right, this wouldn't be the first time that Scientology spoke inaccurately on behalf of a member.

UPDATE (March 22, 2006): Next week's new episode is titled "The Return of Chef."

"Industry sources" confirm Cruise role in "South Park" controversy

A story on CNN reports that, according to unnamed "industry sources," Tom Cruise refused to participate in Mission Impossible 3 publicity for Paramount unless the Scientology episode of "South Park" was pulled from reruns on Comedy Central. Comedy Central and Paramount are both owned by Viacom. This appears to be confirmation of the rumor that had already been reported on numerous blogs.

Carnival of the Godless #36

The 36th Carnival of the Godless is at Daniel Morgan's blog.

The Liberty University debate team: They're not really #1

The Liberty University debate team continues to get undeserved press for their highly misleading way of claiming to be #1, when in fact they can't remotely compete against the best debate teams in the country. (Latest story, in the New York Times Magazine.) Ed Brayton at Dispatches from the Culture Wars exposes the truth, yet again. Mainstream media: Pay attention, and stop spreading misleading information. [Link updated 6 June 2013 to point to a more recent Ed Brayton overview.]

21 airports fail bomb screening test

Investigators for the General Accountability Office conducted tests at 21 airports to test screeners' ability to detect bomb components powerful enough to blow up the trunk of a car. They successfully got the parts past security screening at all 21 airports.

The TSA responded by saying that the tests "failed to consider the full array of air travel security measures." That response doesn't seem to be to the point--the parts were successfully smuggled past security checkpoints, meaning that there was no effective countermeasure in place.

The U.S. Air Force's institutionalized Christianity

Jeff Lowder reports on a new lawsuit against the U.S. Air Force for religious discrimination:

The 12-page court filing says guest speakers at conventions of Air Force recruiters in 2003 and 2005 told Burleigh and other recruiters that "they needed to accept Jesus Christ in order to perform their job duties" and "to use faith in Jesus Christ while recruiting."

When the plaintiff resisted his superiors' efforts at proselytizing, he became the target of lower performance ratings than peers who attended religious activities such as prayer groups and church.

This is following a previous lawsuit last October by Mikey Weinstein against the U.S. Air Force regarding institutionalized Christianity at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs:

Over the past decade or more, the suit claims, academy leaders have fostered an environment of religious intolerance at the Colorado school, in violation of the First Amendment.

Weinstein claims that evangelical Christians at the school have coerced attendance at religious services and prayers at official events, among other things.

Lowder's blog post also reports on the creation of the Military Religious Freedom Foundation to combat these unconstitutional practices in the military. This foundation was started by the same Mikey Weinstein who filed the October 2005 lawsuit. On the advisory board is Pedro L. Irigonegaray, who did an excellent job cross-examining witnesses who promoted intelligent design at the Kansas Kangaroo court hearings last May.

Cory Maye Update: Radley Balko visits Mississippi

Radley Balko has visited Prentiss, Mississippi, and has returned with photos of the duplex (inside and out) where the raid occurred, some interesting information about what happened to the drug dealer, Jamie Smith, who was the target of the original raid, and details about the firing of Bob Evans, the public defender. He also interviewed one of the two black jurors, and finds that she wasn't sure Maye was guilty and didn't seem to have much understanding of her responsibility as a juror. The more facts come out, the worse it looks for Prentiss officials and law enforcement.