More than 50% can be above average

Glen Whitman at Agoraphilia points out how the common example of cognitive bias that "80% of us believe that our driving skills are better than average" can be a correct description of reality, when the median is greater than the mean. By example, the mean time to conception for women trying to get pregnant is 7 months, but 50% of such women are pregnant within 4 months and 75% pregnant within 6 months, so 75% of such women do "better than average."

Creationist finances: Creation Illustrated Ministries

This is the fifth in a series of posts about the finances of the creationist ministries which were previously reported in Reports of the National Center for Science Education in 2000 in an article by John Cole: the Access Research Network, Answers in Genesis, the Creation Evidences Museum, Creation Illustrated Ministries, Creation Moments, the Creation Research Society, Creation Worldview Ministries, the Institute for Creation Research, the Discovery Institute, and I'll add Walter Brown's Center for Scientific Creation to the list. I've already commented on Answers in Genesis, Institute for Creation Research, Access Research Network, and the Creation Evidence Museum. This time out, I'll look at Creation Illustrated Ministries. Creation Illustrated Ministries began in 1993, producing a magazine called Creation Illustrated. The magazine is published by a homeschooling couple, Tom and Jennifer Ish of Auburn, California, who describe how they got started here. As usual, the 1998 information from John R. Cole's "Money Floods Anti-Evolutionists' Coffers" in Reports of the National Center for Science Education 20(1-2, 2000):64-65: 1998: Revenue: $202,950 Expenses: $198,414 And the last three years available through GuideStar.org: 2001 (July 2001-June 2002): Revenue: $232,381 ($52,154 donations, $179,961 program service revenue) Expenses: $241,795 Net assets at end of year: -$66,079 Salaries (18.3% of revenue): Thomas M. Ish, president: $24,000 (plus $7,947 in expenses) Jennifer L. Ish, secretary: $10,500 2002 (July 2002-June 2003): Revenue: $307,582 ($109,715 in donations, $197,700 in program service revenue which is $167,095 from subscriptions, $4,095 from book and video sales, $26,510 from advertising) Expenses: $285,364 Net assets at end of year: -$43,861 Salaries (11.0% of revenue): Thomas M. Ish, president: $15,000 (plus $6,706 in expenses) Jennifer L. Ish, secretary: $12,000 2003 (July 2003-June 2004): Revenue: $357,600 ($96,782 in donations, $259,339 in program service revenue which is $170,815 from subscriptions, $26,005 from book and video sales, $62,519 from advertising) Expenses: $363,742 Net assets at end of year: -$50,003 Salaries (19.8% of revenue): Thomas M. Ish, president: $39,000 (plus $12,205 in expenses) Jennifer L. Ish, secretary: $19,500 Creation Illustrated Ministries is apparently run as a home-based business, with the organization leasing office space from the Ish family, but not actually paying for it. The Ish family have also run up mileage for the nonprofit which they have not been reimbursed for, bringing the total amount the organization owes them up to $305,180. As an organization, CIM is running up debt to its founders/officers, the Ish family, which is the main cause of its negative net assets. It is seeing revenue growth from year to year, but two of the last three years of reports above show expenses exceeding revenue. It looks like it is working well enough to keep going and continue making a living for its founders, but I would expect a business running for over a decade to be able to start reducing its debt as revenue grows. Their website indicates that Jennifer Ish's responsibilities for circulation and fulfillment have been outsourced to "a magazine fulfillment company in Southern California," which may have led to improved efficiency. You can find CIM's 2001 Form 990 here, 2002 Form 990 here, and their 2003 Form 990 here.

Creationist finances: the Creation Evidence Museum

This is the fourth in a series of posts about the finances of the creationist ministries which were previously reported in Reports of the National Center for Science Education in 2000 in an article by John Cole: the Access Research Network, Answers in Genesis, the Creation Evidences Museum, Creation Illustrated Ministries, Creation Moments, the Creation Research Society, Creation Worldview Ministries, the Institute for Creation Research, the Discovery Institute, and I'll add Walter Brown's Center for Scientific Creation to the list. I've already commented on Answers in Genesis, Institute for Creation Research, and Access Research Network. The Creation Evidence Museum (formerly Creation Evidences Museum) of Glen Rose, Texas is run by Rev. Carl Baugh, one of the most unreliable young-earth creationists still around. Baugh, born in 1936, was the Kent Hovind of his day, and boasts a CV that includes promoting Paluxy River dinosaur footprints as human footprints, diploma mill degrees, and running a diploma mill. Baugh is one of the creationists who has been called out by name in criticism by Creation Ministries International. One of Baugh's claims is that a 19th-century miner's hammer he found in a concretion in Ordovician or Silurian rock is an "out-of-place" fossil proving that the earth is young. Baugh has refused to allow the handle of this hammer to be radiocarbon dated. In a written debate I had with Walter Brown of the Center for Scientific Creation, Brown raised this hammer as a problem for evolution, and stated that it had not been dated because of Baugh's three "understandable" conditions for dating it, one of which was that someone else pay for it. Glen Kuban has an up-to-date summary of the claims regarding this hammer. And now, the financial data--first, the 1998 information from John R. Cole's "Money Floods Anti-Evolutionists' Coffers" in Reports of the National Center for Science Education 20(1-2, 2000):64-65: 1998: Revenue: $420,460 Expenses: $365,816 And the last three years: 2002 (Aug 2002-July 2003): Revenue: $610,693.35 Expenses: $565,340.58 Net assets at end of year: $1,178,851.97 Salary: Carl Baugh, president and director: $63,780.72 The 2002-2003 Form 990 is printed by hand. 2003 (August 2003-July 2004): Revenue: $493,797.03 Expenses: $498,214.66 Net assets at end of year: $1,174,434.34 Salary: Carl Baugh, president and director: $66,717.50 2004 (August 2004-July 2005): Revenue: $494,361.26 Expenses: $466,491.23 Net assets at end of year: $1,202,304.37 Salary: Carl Baugh, president and director: $68,639.80 The Creation Evidence Museum is another small and not terribly influential organization. About half of its annual expenses go to running the museum, much of the rest to salaries and benefits, with a few thousand dollars a year spent on various forms of "research." Its income is about $300,000 a year in donations, $170,000-$200,000 in receipts from admissions, merchandise sold, etc. The good news is that gross receipts from admissions and merchandise sold have declined, not hitting $200,000 since 2001. It also looks like revenue may have peaked in 2003. The decline is attributable to a decline in sales of "educational products," as museum entrance fees and lecture fees have increased: Museum entrance fees and lectures: 2002: $24,055 2003: $23,295 2004: $27,961 Sales of "educational products": 2002: $151,454.55 2003: $144,242.14 2004: $139,375.02 Most of the museum's assets are in buildings, equipment, five vehicles, and the museum collection of artifacts. At the end of July 2005, it had less than $20,000 in cash on hand, and $61,000 in investments. This is not a museum sitting on a large endowment that will continue to operate if the cash flow were to stop. You can find CEM's 2002 Form 990 here, their 2003 Form 990 here, and their 2004 Form 990 here.

Radley Balko visits Rack and Roll Billiards

Radley Balko of The Agitator paid a visit to David Ruttenberg's bar in Manassas Park, Virginia, and witnessed firsthand the police harassment.

(Also see previous coverage.)

Kearny High School and David Paszkiewicz make the NY Times again

Today's New York Times contains an editorial criticizing the "strange silence in Kearny" in response to David Paszkiewicz's proselytizing in his U.S. History classroom:

The vast majority of Americans deplore such proselytizing in public classrooms. But the truly disturbing aspect of all this, described earlier this month by Times reporter Tina Kelley, is not that one teacher so blatantly crossed the church-state boundary but that so few school officials and community residents seemed bothered by his behavior.

The editorial points out the bravery of Matthew LaClair:

The only reason anyone knows about Mr. Paskiewicz’s behavior is that one student, Matthew LaClair, 16, had the courage to speak up in September. Before doing so, he taped Mr. Paszkiewicz for eight classes because he feared officials would not believe him. He has since received one death threat, lost many friends, and says he can “feel the glares” when he goes to school.

The editorial concludes:

In recent years, the divide between religion and the classroom has been narrowed as conservative courts have ruled in favor of tuition vouchers for religious schools, ruled that religion clubs can meet in public schools and allowed federal money to be spent on computers and other instructional equipment for parochial schools. But even groups like the Rutherford Institute, which provides legal help in religious freedom cases, says that Mr. Paszkiewicz appears to have crossed the line against outright preaching in the public schools.

That he did. While he certainly has the right like anyone in this country to voice and practice his beliefs, he doesn’t have the right to do so while standing in front of a captive audience of students to whom his assertions carry the ring of authority.

The silence among senior school officials is disheartening. Instead of ducking, they should be writing guidelines making it clear that this sort of behavior will not be tolerated in public classrooms.

Until Kearny High School administrators take some real action, this issue won't just go away.

UPDATE: Paul LaClair lays it all out at the KearnyontheWeb forum:

The New York Times quotes me today as saying that we will consider litigation in the proselytizing teacher matter unless Kearny High's students are properly educated regarding Paszkiewicz's anti-scientific mis-statements and the Constitutional separation between church and state. I am opening this topic to explain to the community why we believe this is important.

I hope we all agree in principle that the schools, both public and private, exist to educate our young people. That means teaching them science and enough law so they can function positively as citizens in a democracy. When a teacher mis-states and distorts science and law to such an extent as David Paszkiewicz did (and I suspect has done for quite some time), corrections are mandatory if the school system is to fulfill its educational purposes.

This is especially true when the teacher is popular, as appears to be the case here. The worst possible scenario educationally is that a popular teacher convinces young people that his twisted views of science and the law are true. That also appears to have happened here, judging from student reaction and from the absence of any correction in the past. All the rationalizations aside, the real reason Paszkiewicz is being defended is that some people think his ignorance and his bigotry are acceptable.

I am personally disgusted as a taxpayer, a parent and a citizen that the adminisration in the Kearny school district seems not to care. It is unacceptable that these remarks go uncorrected, especially when so many members of the community and even a fellow teacher (anonymously quoted in The New York Times on December 18) see absolutely nothing wrong with what Paszkiewicz has been doing. This is intellectual poison, I can give it no less strong a term. The only thing worse than no information is misinformation, and this was misinformation.

It is not acceptable that our schools in Kearny are training our young people to be "ignorant and scientifically illiterate," as Dr. Tyson, the astrophysicist who heads the Hayden Planetarium, put it in a letter to The New York Times. That is why Kearny is in the Times again today, and remains in the news. While I truly am reluctant to use the word "stupid," it does come to mind.

Must we really fight with the school board and the administration to ensure that the students receive an education in science, instead of the 2006 equivalent of flat-earth science? Must we have a legal team straighten out the mess Paszkiewicz has made of the students' understanding of the Constitution? This is insanity.

I understand that some people think the issue is resolved, and don't like our continuing to press it. There is a very simple solution, and I address this to the board, the administration and the teacher: admit your mistakes, make appropriate corrections, and let's move on. We've been asking for that for nearly three months now, and obviously these parties have no intention of doing that.

OK, so we'll do this the hard way. We would never have imagined that we would have to fight a bitter battle with this school system to force it to do its job, but apparently that is what will be necessary. I invite concerned citizens to speak up, or to contact us to try to resolve this in an appropriate way, so that the world can say the citizens of Kearny spoke up and demanded a proper resolution.

This post has resulted in the following posted threat, apparently from a Kearny resident who supports Paszkiewicz:

PAUL I NEVER SAY THIS TO ANYBODY ON THIS SITE "BUT FOR YOU I WILL {YOU ARE SCUM AND KEARNY WILL BE SORRY FOR THE DAY YOUR WERE BORN} I HOPE THE NJ BAR SEES THIS FOR WHAT IT REALY IS AND DISBARRS YOU! ALSO YOUR SON WILL PAY THE PRICE FOR YOUR SCAM! HISTORY PROVES ME RIGHT ON THIS JUST ASK THE ****** KIDS!!! ALSO YOU FORGET YOUR IN KEARNY YOU BETTER THINK HARD ABOUT IT IM TALKING ABOUT THE TOWNS HISTORY WITH TROUBLE MAKERS LIKE YOU!!!

Nice. And that's the version that the KearnyontheWeb moderators "edited for content"!

Is there any question who's got the moral high ground in this dispute?

The 10 most outrageous civil liberties violations of 2006

Dahlia Lithwick gives a rundown.

Books Read in 2006

I read the following books in 2006. These are the ones I've finished--looks like I didn't do nearly as well as last year. The links are to Amazon.com, where I've reviewed most of these.

• James Bovard, The Bush Betrayal
• Daniel Gilbert, Stumbling on Happiness
• John Grogan, Marley & Me: Life and Love with the World's Worst Dog
• Jim Harper, Identity Crisis: How Identification is Overused and Misunderstood
• John Hodgman, The Areas of My Expertise
• Jennifer Michael Hecht, Doubt: A History
• Nick Hornby, A Long Way Down
• Paul Krassner, One Hand Jerking: Reports from an investigative satirist
• Lawrence Lessig, Free Culture: The Nature and Future of Creativity
• Cesar Millan with Melissa Jo Peltier, Cesar's Way: The Natural, Everyday Guide to Understanding & Correcting Common Dog Problems
• John Allen Paulos, A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper
• John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
• Gerald Posner, Why America Slept: The Failure to Prevent 9/11
• V.S. Ramachandran, M.D., Ph.D., and Sandra Blakeslee, Phantoms in the Brain: Probing the Mysteries of the Human Mind
• Mary Roach, Spook: Science Tackles the Afterlife
• Rudy Rucker, Saucer Wisdom
• Thomas J. Stanley, The Millionaire Mind
• Neil Strauss, The Game: Penetrating the Secret Society of Pickup Artists
• Martha Stout, Ph.D., The Sociopath Next Door
• Nick Webb, Wish You Were Here: The Official Biography of Douglas Adams

And these are the ones I haven't finished yet--some (Amar, Numbers, Zimmer) I just started, others have been hanging around for a while and I should probably give up on (some of these were started but uncompleted this time last year). The Girard and Lambot book is a beautiful, interesting, and quite expensive book that can be read one short biography at a time.

• Akhil Reed Amar, America's Constitution: A Biography
• Diego Gambetta, The Sicilian Mafia: The Business of Private Protection
• Greg Girard and Ian Lambot, City of Darkness: Life in Kowloon Walled City
• Antonio Damasio, Looking for Spinoza: Joy, Sorrow, and the Feeling Brain
• Olivia Judson, Dr. Tatiana's Sex Advice to All Creation
• Ronald Numbers, The Creationists: From Scientific Creationism to Intelligent Design
• Kevin Mandia, Chris Prosise, and Matt Pepe, Incident Response and Computer Forensics, Second Edition
• Kevin Phillips, American Dynasty: Aristocracy, Fortune, and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush
• Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian, Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy
• Spammer-X, Inside the Spam Cartel: Trade Secrets from the Dark Side
• Robert H. Tillman and Michael L. Indergaard, Pump & Dump: The Rancid Rules of the New Economy
• John Viega and Gary McGraw, Building Secure Software: How to Avoid Security Problems the Right Way
• Vernor Vinge, The Collected Stories of Vernor Vinge
• Andrew Vladimirov, Konstantin V. Gavrilenko, Andrei A. Mikhailovsky, WI-FOO: The Secrets of Wireless Hacking
• Carl Zimmer, Evolution: The Triumph of an Idea

(Previously: 2005.)

Creationist finances: Access Research Network

This is the third in a series of posts about the finances of the creationist ministries which were previously reported in Reports of the National Center for Science Education in 2000 in an article by John Cole: the Access Research Network, Answers in Genesis, the Creation Evidences Museum, Creation Illustrated Ministries, Creation Moments, the Creation Research Society, Creation Worldview Ministries, the Institute for Creation Research, the Discovery Institute, and I'll add Walter Brown's Center for Scientific Creation to the list. I've already commented on Answers in Genesis and the Institute for Creation Research. Access Research Network was originally known as Students for Origins Research, which published a periodical on newsprint called Origins Research, a publication I subscribed to for a number of years and enjoyed reading. The periodical promoted an open-minded approach, avoided ad hominem, and was a cut above most other creationist publications. They printed two letters from me, one about Donald Johansen and Lucy's knee joint in 1989 (vol. 12, no. 2, p. 12) and one titled "Science Education" (I forget the specific subject matter) in 1992 (vol. 14, no. 2, p. 9). Origins Research began publication in 1978 and ceased publication in 1996, replaced by a quarterly journal called Origins & Design. Origins & Design suspended publication in 2001 and was supposed to resume publication online, but has not rematerialized. According to the expanded 2006 edition of Ronald Numbers' The Creationists (p. 550, note 21), C. Davis Weyerhauser of the Weyerhauser paper fortune was the primary benefactor who made Origins & Design possible; after he died in April 1999 the funds dried up. I don't see that reflected in a difference between the 1998 financial data (though I do not have a copy of the Form 990, only the revenue and expense numbers) and the last three years of data. Access Research Network has covered other areas besides the creation/evolution debate, involving science, technology, and society. Their website lists "genetic engineering, euthanasia, computer technology, environmental issues, creation/evolution, fetal tissue research, AIDS, and so on" as "controversial topics" of interest. They've been heavily involved in promoting "intelligent design" and have published and promoted the work of ID advocates such as Phillip Johnson, Michael Behe, Jonathan Wells, and William Dembski. The ARN board of directors is Dennis Wagner, Mark Hartwig, Steve Meyer, and Paul Nelson. ARN is a small nonprofit organization headquartered in Colorado Springs with no paid staff. On to the financial data--first, the 1998 information from John R. Cole's "Money Floods Anti-Evolutionists' Coffers" in Reports of the National Center for Science Education 20(1-2, 2000):64-65: 1998: Revenue: $59,311 Expenses: $82,548 And the last three years: 2003: Revenue: $46,674 Expenses: $56,874 Net assets at end of year: $14,624 2004: Revenue: $136,238 Expenses: $121,828 Net assets at end of year: $29,034 2005: Revenue: $78,855 Expenses: $82,306 Net assets at end of year: $25,583 ARN is a small organization, so it doesn't take much to result in large fluctuations (on a percentage basis) in revenue and expenses. Their expenses don't include any salaries, and are thus fairly easy to keep low. A few large donations or a popular book or DVD to sell can make a huge difference in annual revenue. In 2005, they made $28,397 of their revenue by selling items such as books and DVDs, $49,211 in donations, and the remainder from interest and book royalties. The largest categories of expense were $36,315 for Internet services (e.g., webhosting), $14,397 for postage and shipping, $12,155 for accounting fees, and $7,300 for office expenses. You can find ARN's 2003 Form 990 here, their 2004 Form 990 here, and their 2005 Form 990 here. Their website, www.arn.org, is currently ranked 375,303 on alexa.com. By contrast, the Internet Infidels website is ranked 68,915, despite having comparable revenue. (Consider an end-of-year donation at the Internet Infidels website.)

Creationist finances: Institute for Creation Research

After looking at Answers in Genesis of Kentucky's financial results for 2005, several people have asked whether their decline is unique. (Though, due to my error in reading their 2005 Form 990, we now know that they have not seen a decline.) What I've decided to do in order to answer that question is to make a series of posts about the finances of the creationist ministries which were previously reported in Reports of the National Center for Science Education in 2000 in an article by John Cole: the Access Research Network, Answers in Genesis, the Creation Evidences Museum, Creation Illustrated Ministries, Creation Moments, the Creation Research Society, Creation Worldview Ministries, the Institute for Creation Research, and the Discovery Institute. For good measure, I'll throw in Walter Brown's Center for Scientific Creation. I'll then sum up in a final post. I've already posted about Answers in Genesis, and I'll begin with the Institute for Creation Research since I've already got the numbers handy. The Institute for Creation Research (ICR) has been around since 1970, when it was founded by Henry Morris and Duane Gish with financial support from Tim LaHaye, through his Christian Heritage College. The ICR became independent from CHC in 1981. It operates a creationism museum and a graduate school in Santee, California, and produces the small monthly publication "Acts & Facts" (among others). The ICR was once the dominant young-earth creationist organization in the United States, but has been overshadowed for years by Answers in Genesis. Founder Henry Morris turned over the reins to his son John in 1995, and Henry Morris died in February of this year. Duane Gish, the noted creationist debater, has greatly reduced his public appearances in his old age (he's nearly 86). John Morris has never been the enthusiastic creationist superstar that his father or Gish were. The ICR's revenues have remained fairly flat for years--which means they've declined in real terms, after inflation. In John R. Cole's "Money Floods Anti-Evolutionists' Coffers" in Reports of the National Center for Science Education 20(1-2, 2000):64-65, he reported that the ICR's 1998 revenue was $4,167,547 and expenses were $3,997,419. The last three years of ICR Form 990s at GuideStar.org show little change from 1998: 2003: Revenue: $4,478,918 Expenses: $4,545,220 Net assets at end of year: $5,285,382 Salaries: $1,973,712 (44.1% of revenue) ($226,854 directors/execs, $1,746,858 other salaries) 2004: Revenue: $4,245,441 Expenses: $4,453,622 Net assets at end of year: $5,091,069 Salaries: $2,090,231 (49.2% of revenue) ($232,053 directors/execs, $1,858,178 other salaries) 2005: Revenue: $4,341,000 Expenses: $4,231,885 Net assets at end of year: $5,228,062 Salaries: $2,003,648 (46.2% of revenue) ($306,346 directors/execs, $1,697,302 other salaries) The ICR seems to be doing OK financially, but they clearly need to keep an eye on their salary expenses. John Morris took a small pay cut in 2005, but the other directors and staff with salaries over $50,000 have been getting regular annual pay raises. Despite Gish's reduced public appearances, his salary has continued to climb, from $78,198 in 2003 to $80,544 in 2004 to $84,969 in 2005. Here are the specifics of other salaries reported in the Form 990--I've included two contractors, geologist Andrew Snelling (formerly associated with AiG-Australia) and tour leader Mike Riddle, who has worked for ICR, AiG, and other young-earth creationist groups. He appears to have disappeared from the ICR payroll in 2005, which may just mean they paid him less than $50,000. 2003: Executives/Directors: John Morris, president: $79,671 Duane Gish, vice president: $78,198 Donald Rohrer, treasurer: $68,985 --- Employees making $50K or more: Kenneth Cumming, dean of grad school: $73,049 Larry Vardiman, head physics dept: $66,843 Russell Humphreys, research scientist: $66,414 Donald Barber, systems admin: $75,000 Henry Morris III, strategic ministry: $74,984 --- Contractors (not counted in above salary totals): Andrew Snelling, geology research: $96,960 Mike Riddle, tours: $67,468 2004: Executives/Directors: John Morris, president: $82,524 Duane Gish, vice president: $80,544 Donald Rohrer, treasurer: $68,985 --- Employees making $50K or more: Kenneth Cumming, dean of grad school: $75,240 Larry Vardiman, head physics dept: $68,847 Russell Humphreys, research scientist: $68,407 Donald Barber, systems admin: $77,250 Henry Morris III, strategic ministry: $77,234 --- Contractors (not counted in above salary totals): Andrew Snelling, geology research: $98,587 Mike Riddle, tours: $79,686 2005: Executives/Directors: John Morris, president: $74,915 Duane Gish, vice president: $84,969 Donald Rohrer, treasurer: $71,055 Larry Vardiman, COO: $75,407 --- Employees making $50K or more: Donald Barber, systems admin: $79,567 Henry Morris III, strategic ministry: $79,551 Kenneth Cumming, dean of grad school: $77,497 Patricia Nason, professor: $72,100 Russell Humphreys, research scientist: $70,459 --- Contractors: Andrew Snelling, science research: $85,527 Larry Vardiman's ascent to the COO position suggests to me that he's the likely successor to John Morris to run the show. To sum up the ICR--they're not particularly hurting for cash, but they aren't growing, and appear to be stagnating. In real, inflation-adjusted terms, they're not doing as well as they were a decade ago, and they're clearly not the force for creation evangelism they used to be. It appears to me that they are in a long-term decline. [UPDATE (4 March 2023): John D. Morris' position as president of ICR ended in 2020; his brother Henry Morris III was CEO until 2020 when he retired. The president and COO chosen by the board in 2020 was Dr. Randy Guliuzza (M.D., with engineering and theology bachelor's degrees and a Harvard Master's of Public Health).]

Creation Ministries International gets into the UFO business

A link on the front page of the Creation Ministries International website under the heading "Affiliated sites" says "Alien Intrusion." If you click on it, you are taken to alienintrusion.com, a site promoting a book by Gary Bates titled Alien Intrusion: UFOs and the Evolution Connection.

The material on the website is extremely uninformative about what arguments and positions Bates takes in the book. A "Q&A" with Gary Bates begs off on supplying any answers on the grounds that "a one-line answer will not be satisfying because lots of people have already made their minds up without really looking at the evidence," but the promise is made that "The truth is most certainly out there, and it is revealed in my book, but it is probably not what most people think." I translate this as "I'm not going to reveal my position, so that I can get as many UFO believers as possible to buy this book thinking that it will confirm their views."

The reviewers on Amazon.com are more forthcoming--apparently the book is about 75% debunking of the sort that would please skeptics like Philip Klass, Robert Sheaffer, or James Oberg, while the remaining 25% advocates a view that would be more pleasing to Norman Geisler--that UFO phenomena are a product of Satan and demonic influence. In short, Gary Bates seems to be following the path of Clifford Wilson, a Christian (and young-earth creationist) who wrote an excellent debunking of Erich von Daniken's Chariots of the Gods? titled Crash Go the Chariots, which was flawed by its inclusion of religious advocacy. Wilson also did his credibility no good by associating with the most inept of creationists, Rev. Carl Baugh, with whom he participated in running some diploma mills.

If this is the direction that CMI intends to branch out in order to grow its ministries, I'm skeptical of their long-term success. UFOlogy has been in decline for decades, with UFO magazines and conferences falling on hard times, as can be seen in Jim Moseley's Saucer Smear newsletter, an amusing gossip rag of the UFO field read by and contributed to by both believers and skeptics.